This paper is published in Volume 4, Issue 3, 2019
Area
Engineering and Technology
Author
Hla Hla Myint
Org/Univ
Universities of Computer Studies, Magway, Myanmar, Myanmar
Pub. Date
27 March, 2019
Paper ID
V4I3-1145
Publisher
Keywords
Hidden Markov model, Influenza, Epidemics

Citationsacebook

IEEE
Hla Hla Myint. Effective performance of hidden Markov model for epidemiologic surveillance, International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology, www.IJARnD.com.

APA
Hla Hla Myint (2019). Effective performance of hidden Markov model for epidemiologic surveillance. International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology, 4(3) www.IJARnD.com.

MLA
Hla Hla Myint. "Effective performance of hidden Markov model for epidemiologic surveillance." International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology 4.3 (2019). www.IJARnD.com.

Abstract

The public health surveillance system is one of the most important for the detection of the seasonal influenza epidemic. We introduced different kinds of surveillance data for early detection of a disease outbreak. Hidden Markov model has been recognized as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data. In this work, we proposed a hidden Markov model (HMM) to characterize epidemic and non-epidemic dynamic in a time series of influenza-like illness incidence rates and presents a method of influenza detection in an epidemic. ILI is defined as an illness marked by the presence of a fever ( 100.5℉ or greater ) and either a cough or sore throat within 72 hours of ILI symptom onset, or physician-diagnosed ILI. ILI incidence rate is based on surveillance data and activity state. HMMs have been used in many areas, including automatic speech recognition, electrocardiographic signal analysis, the modeling of neuron firing and meteorology. A two-state HMM is applied on incidence time series assuming that those observations are generated from a mixture of Gaussian distribution. Bayesian inference method is calculated to obtain the probability of an epidemic state and non-epidemic state every week. The various influenza dataset applied the methodology.
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